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Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship? — Gukesh D

35.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $1K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship? — Gukesh D" has a consensus probability of 35.0%. Gemini: 35.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Gemini
View →
35%
$1K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Gemini
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$1K
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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