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Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?

1.6%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 1pp spread · $38K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?" has a consensus probability of 1.6%. Polymarket: 1.4%, Manifold: 2.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
1%
$38K
Manifold
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2%
6 traders
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$38K
Liquidity
$26K
Bid / Ask
1.3% / 1.4%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Sep 2026
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles …
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Sep 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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