Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?" has a consensus probability of 2.1%. Polymarket: 2.7%, Manifold: 1.7%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
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