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Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

20.6%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 2pp spread · $6K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" has a consensus probability of 20.6%. Polymarket: 20.0%, Manifold: 22.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
20%
$6K
Manifold
View →
22%
13 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 12d ago
Volume
$6K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
18.0% / 22.0%
Spread
4.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If …
Manifold
Updated 5h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jul 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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