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Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

30.8%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 8pp spread · $42K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?" has a consensus probability of 30.8%. Polymarket: 33.0%, Manifold: 25.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
33%
$42K
Manifold
View →
25%
13 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$42K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
31.0% / 35.0%
Spread
4.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve according to the top goalscorer of the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League. If multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the playe…
Manifold
Updated 1h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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