Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?" has a consensus probability of 6.8%. Polymarket: 3.9%, Gemini: 8.0%, Manifold: 10.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.