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Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?

1.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 1pp spread · $22K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?" has a consensus probability of 1.0%. Polymarket: 0.8%, Manifold: 2.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
1%
$22K
Manifold
View →
2%
13 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$22K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
0.5% / 1.0%
Spread
0.5%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve according to the top goalscorer of the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League. If multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games played, and finally the playe…
Manifold
Updated 1h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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