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Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 RBC Heritage?

0.4%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 3pp spread · $21K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 RBC Heritage?" has a consensus probability of 0.4%. Polymarket: 0.1%, Gemini: 3.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
0%
$13K
Gemini
View →
3%
$8K
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$13K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
— / 0.1%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 RBC Heritage tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the RBC Heritage tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No"…
Gemini
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$8K
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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