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Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

5.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $755K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series?" has a consensus probability of 5.0%. Polymarket: 5.1%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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5%
$755K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$755K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
5.0% / 5.1%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs)…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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