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Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

74.3%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 0pp spread · $25K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?" has a consensus probability of 74.3%. Manifold: 74.1%, Polymarket: 74.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
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74%
6 traders
Polymarket
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74%
$25K
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 2h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$25K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
73.0% / 76.0%
Spread
3.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Guberna…

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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