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Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?

5.8%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 0pp spread · $125K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?" has a consensus probability of 5.8%. Polymarket: 4.2%, Manifold: 5.8%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
4%
$125K
Manifold
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6%
6 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 27d ago
Volume
$125K
Liquidity
$1K
Bid / Ask
3.2% / 5.3%
Spread
2.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Sep 2026
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles …
Manifold
Updated 4h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Sep 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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