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Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

4.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $1.0M

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Series?" has a consensus probability of 4.0%. Polymarket: 4.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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4%
$1.0M
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$1.0M
Liquidity
$18K
Bid / Ask
3.3% / 4.8%
Spread
1.5%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 National League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 National League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs)…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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