Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?" has a consensus probability of 55.6%. Polymarket: 50.0%, Manifold: 61.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.