Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 8.2%. Polymarket: 8.2%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.