Across 1 prediction market platform, "World Chess Championship Winner — Gukesh Dommaraju" has a consensus probability of 39.3%. Manifold: 39.3%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.