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2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

21.5%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $1.3M

Across 1 prediction market platform, "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House" has a consensus probability of 21.5%. Polymarket: 21.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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22%
$1.3M
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 12d ago
Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$130K
Bid / Ask
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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