Across 2 prediction market platforms, "2028 Democratic Nominee for President? — Gavin Newsom" has a consensus probability of 13.2%. Manifold: 11.6%, Gemini: 14.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.