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2028 Republican Nominee for President? — Glenn Youngkin

1.4%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 2pp spread

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "2028 Republican Nominee for President? — Glenn Youngkin" has a consensus probability of 1.4%. Gemini: 3.0%, Manifold: 0.7%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Gemini
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3%
Manifold
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1%
58 traders
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Gemini
Updated 3h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2028
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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