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2028 Republican Nominee for President? — Marco Rubio

24.7%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 1pp spread

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "2028 Republican Nominee for President? — Marco Rubio" has a consensus probability of 24.7%. Gemini: 25.0%, Manifold: 24.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Gemini
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25%
Manifold
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24%
58 traders
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Gemini
Updated 2h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2028
Manifold
Updated 2h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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