Across 1 prediction market platform, "AI races: Will Alex Bores be the 2026 Democratic candidate for NY-12?" has a consensus probability of 29.6%. Manifold: 29.6%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.