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Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

3.2%

Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)

4 platforms · 3pp spread · $6.8M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" has a consensus probability of 3.2%. Manifold: 2.2%, Gemini: 5.0%, Polymarket: 1.8%, Predictit: 5.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Manifold
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1242 traders

Gemini
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Polymarket
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$6.8M

Predictit
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Probability Over Time

All 6 Consensus Models

Market Details

Manifold

Updated 29m ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Feb 2029

Gemini

Updated 30m ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Polymarket

Updated 9h ago

Volume

$6.8M

Liquidity

$550K

Bid / Ask

1.8% / 1.9%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.…

Predictit

Updated 20d ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

—

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →