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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

34.7%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 36pp spread · $5.3M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 34.7%. Manifold: 28.6%, Polymarket: 33.1%, Gemini: 29.5%, Predictit: 65.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Manifold
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29%

25 traders

Polymarket
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33%

$5.3M

Gemini
View →

30%

$8K

Predictit
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65%

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Manifold

Updated 4h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Oct 2026

Polymarket

Updated 26d ago

Volume

$5.3M

Liquidity

$136K

Bid / Ask

33.0% / 33.1%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Oct 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:…

Gemini

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$8K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Oct 2026

Predictit

Updated 3h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →