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How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

26.8%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 3pp spread · $35K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer" has a consensus probability of 26.8%. Polymarket: 25.5%, Predictit: 28.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
26%
$16K
Predictit
View →
28%
$18K
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 20d ago
Volume
$16K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
25.0% / 26.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the re…
Predictit
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$18K
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Jun 2026
Resolves

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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