Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?" has a consensus probability of 20.3%. Polymarket: 20.6%, Manifold: 19.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.