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Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

6.9%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 3pp spread · $394K

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" has a consensus probability of 6.9%. Predictit: 9.0%, Polymarket: 9.5%, Manifold: 6.3%, Gemini: 50.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Predictit
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Polymarket
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10%

$380K

Manifold
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16 traders

Gemini
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50%

$14K

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Predictit

Updated 4h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

May 2026

Resolves

—

Polymarket

Updated 27d ago

Volume

$380K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

9.0% / 10.0%

Spread

1.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this m…

Manifold

Updated 4h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

Gemini

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$14K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →