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Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

1.8%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 1pp spread · $724K

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" has a consensus probability of 1.8%. Polymarket: 3.0%, Manifold: 1.6%, Predictit: 3.0%, Gemini: 7.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Polymarket
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$710K

Manifold
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16 traders

Predictit
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Gemini
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$14K

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 27d ago

Volume

$710K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

3.0% / 3.1%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this m…

Manifold

Updated 4h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

Predictit

Updated 36d ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

—

Gemini

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$14K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →