Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 43.6%. Polymarket: 42.5%, Manifold: 41.7%, Gemini: 41.5%, Predictit: 54.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.