Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 9.9%. Polymarket: 7.5%, Manifold: 11.6%, Gemini: 11.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.