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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

32.0%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $490K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?" has a consensus probability of 32.0%. Polymarket: 32.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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32%
$490K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$490K
Liquidity
$18K
Bid / Ask
31.0% / 33.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this m…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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