Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Presidential Election Winner 2028? — Donald Trump" has a consensus probability of 3.3%. Gemini: 8.0%, Manifold: 1.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.