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Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

4.9%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 2pp spread · $6.4M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 4.9%. Manifold: 4.0%, Gemini: 6.0%, Predictit: 5.0%, Polymarket: 2.9%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Manifold
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890 traders

Gemini
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$44K

Predictit
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$6K

Polymarket
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$6.3M

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Manifold

Updated 53m ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Gemini

Updated 53m ago

Volume

$44K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Predictit

Updated 42m ago

Volume

$6K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

—

Polymarket

Updated 27d ago

Volume

$6.3M

Liquidity

$250K

Bid / Ask

2.9% / 3.0%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once a…

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →