Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 3.5%. Gemini: 4.0%, Manifold: 2.6%, Polymarket: 2.9%, Predictit: 5.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.