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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

11.9%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 6pp spread · $9.9M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 11.9%. Polymarket: 12.9%, Predictit: 13.0%, Gemini: 15.0%, Manifold: 8.6%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Polymarket
View →

13%

$9.8M

Predictit
View →

13%

$20K

Gemini
View →

15%

$84K

Manifold
View →

890 traders

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 147d ago

Volume

$9.8M

Liquidity

$158K

Bid / Ask

12.8% / 13.0%

Spread

0.2%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once a…

Predictit

Updated 59d ago

Volume

$20K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

Gemini

Updated 3d ago

Volume

$84K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Manifold

Updated 2h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →