Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 6.5%. Polymarket: 6.7%, Gemini: 9.0%, Manifold: 4.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.