On Manifold Markets, "How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks) — 7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)" has a probability of 99.0%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.