On Manifold Markets, "If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? — 🇫🇷 France" has a probability of 9.5%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.