On Manifold Markets, "Ukraine warcasting megamarket — >5 regular NATO member state troops participate in active combat in Ukraine by EOY 2026" has a probability of 6.4%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.