On Manifold Markets, "Which will be the second of these things to happen in 2026? — A new European political party will start being represented in the European Parliament, OR an old European political party will stop being represented in the European Parliament." has a probability of 2.1%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.