On Manifold Markets, "Who would win if Ethiopia went to war against Eritrea and its ally,The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) ? — Ethiopian Defense Force will win the Fight" has a probability of 19.8%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.