On Manifold Markets, "Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?" has a probability of 83.5%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
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