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SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

88.9%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $21K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?" has a consensus probability of 88.9%. Polymarket: 88.9%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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89%
$21K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 13d ago
Volume
$21K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
85.3% / 92.5%
Spread
7.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Execu…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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