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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

46.1%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 78pp spread · $1.2M

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?" has a consensus probability of 46.1%. Polymarket: 79.0%, Manifold: 1.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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79%
$1.2M
Manifold
View →
1%
5 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$1.2M
Liquidity
$26K
Bid / Ask
78.0% / 80.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of t…
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
May 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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