Across 2 prediction market platforms, "What Party will win the 2026 Arkansas Senate Election? — Republicans" has a consensus probability of 94.7%. Manifold: 94.6%, Predictit: 95.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.