Across 1 prediction market platform, "What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)? — Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)" has a consensus probability of 12.4%. Manifold: 12.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.