Across 1 prediction market platform, "Which Iowa congressional districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? — Iowa's 1st Congressional District" has a consensus probability of 74.5%. Manifold: 74.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.