Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2027 in the 120th Congress. — Republican" has a consensus probability of 21.3%. Manifold: 16.7%, Gemini: 23.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.