Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which party will hold the majority in the US Senate of the 120th Congress in January 2027? — Republican" has a consensus probability of 54.6%. Manifold: 47.7%, Gemini: 57.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.