Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from? — Labour" has a consensus probability of 40.2%. Manifold: 41.8%, Gemini: 39.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.