Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which Party will will the 2026 US Senate Election in West Virginia — Republicans" has a consensus probability of 95.0%. Manifold: 91.2%, Predictit: 95.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.