Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? — Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)" has a consensus probability of 38.6%. Manifold: 37.2%, Gemini: 40.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.